Aluminum prices rebound strongly, while aluminum scrap quotes in some regions choose to stand still [Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap]

SMM July 10 Report:

Today, spot primary aluminum prices rose by 160 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. SMM A00 aluminum ingot prices closed at 20,820 yuan/mt, and aluminum scrap market prices continued to rebound overall. Amid the traditional off-season, downstream scrap utilization enterprises are experiencing weak order releases, with procurement mainly driven by immediate needs.

Today, the centralized quotes for baled UBC aluminum scrap range from 15,350 to 15,800 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive), while shredded aluminum tense scrap quotes range from 15,900 to 17,400 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive). By product, baled UBC aluminum scrap prices rose by 50 yuan/mt MoM from yesterday, slightly following the aluminum price increase. By region, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, and other areas closely followed aluminum price movements, with price adjustments ranging from 100 to 150 yuan/mt. In Guizhou, Hunan, Guangdong, Jiangxi, and other areas, price adjustments lagged behind aluminum price movements, with quotes remaining unchanged from yesterday. According to secondary aluminum enterprises, secondary aluminum alloy prices are currently low. Although scrap recycling is challenging, due to poor production starts, the upside room for prices is also limited.

In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan increased by 160 yuan/mt MoM from yesterday, further expanding to 1,975 yuan/mt. The price difference between A00 aluminum and mechanical casting aluminum scrap in Shanghai decreased by 3 yuan/mt MoM from yesterday, narrowing to 1,832 yuan/mt.

This week, the aluminum scrap market is expected to hover at highs, with cautious price adjustments. Supported by tight supply, shredded aluminum tense scrap prices are resilient and are expected to fluctuate rangebound within the 15,800-17,400 yuan/mt range. Baled UBC aluminum scrap may continue its downward trend due to off-season demand, possibly dipping to 15,200-15,700 yuan/mt. Subsequent attention should be paid to marginal changes in raw material circulation and signals of terminal order recovery.

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